Research

Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions with Nadine Ketel and Olivier Marie (conditional accept at American Economic Review: Insights)

Abstract: Decision-makers can exhibit biases when they overemphasize particularly salient features under limited attention. We exploit a sudden salience shock involving individuals of Moroccan descent in the Netherlands to examine biases within the Dutch criminal justice system. Leveraging high-quality data covering arrest through appeal, we find no impact on police or prosecutor decisions but uncover a 79% increase in sentence lengths imposed by judges on salient individuals. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that judge experience can mitigate bias in these more discretionary decisions. Additionally, we document long-term costs for affected defendants, whose cumulative labor income declined by 40% in the years following conviction.

Older working papers: TI. 

Podcast episode (in Dutch): De Nieuwe Economen Podcast (12 September 2024) (available online, on Spotify and Apple podcasts)

The Fast and the Studious? Ramadan Observance and Student Performance with Olivier Marie and Marco Musumeci (revise and resubmit at Journal of Population Economics)

Abstract: We study the impact of religious obligations conflicting with civic duties, focusing on the performance of Muslim students when Ramadan overlapped with end-of-secondary-school exams in the Netherlands. Using administrative data and a machine learning model to estimate fasting probability, we document significant declines in academic performance and pass rates, particularly among low achievers and those in religiously segregated schools. This impact longer-term outcomes, with a 22% increase in the dropout rates. We suggest scheduling exams in the afternoon, allowing students to rest in the morning, as a practical policy to limit the adverse effects of Ramadan on academic performance.

Older working papers: TI, CEPR.

Columns: ESB (in Dutch); VoxEU

Media coverage (in Dutch): Algemeen Dagblad (13 May 2023); NRC (31 August 2023); NOS Stories (1 September 2023); NRC (14 March 2024)

Short explainer video (in Dutch, with subtitles)